Balkans | More than half of Europe’s LNG capacity is at risk of being disrupted by 2030

It has been determined that LNG terminal capacity in Europe will exceed 400 billion cubic meters by 2030, and more than half of this capacity is at risk of disruption due to lower demand.

According to the European LNG Tracker report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), LNG infrastructure capacity in Europe, including the UK, Norway and Turkey, will reach 270 bcm by the end of 2022.

After the war that Russia started in Ukraine, Europe, seeking alternative ways and resources to reduce dependence on Russian gas, has accelerated its investments in liquefied natural gas, and it is planned to build large capabilities in this field until 2030.

Europe’s LNG infrastructure capacity is expected to exceed 400 billion cubic meters by 2030, while Europe’s LNG demand is expected to be at the level of 150 billion cubic meters in this period.

Thus, there is a risk that the LNG infrastructure with a capacity of approximately 250 bcm in Europe will remain idle. Spain, Turkey, UK, France, Italy and Germany stand out as the countries where the largest idle capacity can occur.

It is estimated that Europe’s planned LNG infrastructure capacity by 2030 will be higher than the EU’s gas consumption of 413 bcm in 2021. By contrast, total gas demand in Europe is expected to reach 2030 to 390 billion cubic meters.

“The most expensive and unnecessary warranty policy in the world”

Report author and IEEFA analyst Ana Maria Galler-Makariewicz stated that excess LNG capacity is “the most expensive unnecessary guarantee policy in the world,” adding that “Europe must carefully balance gas and LNG regimes. Increasing infrastructure will not LNG increases the reliability of the system. This is also a situation with the risk that these assets will be out of order.” Use phrases.

Reflecting on the cost of building and operating LNG infrastructures, Galler-Makariewicz said: “Decisions to expand LNG infrastructure in Europe should be based on future demand needs. The EU aims to reduce gas demand by one third by 2030 All this must be taken into account. He rated it.

Europe’s dependence on Russian LNG is deepening

Although Europe’s pipeline gas imports from Russia decreased significantly after the war, LNG imports increased.

According to the IEEFA, Europe received 20.2 billion cubic meters of LNG from Russia in 2022. This was recorded as an increase of 12 percent compared to LNG imports, which were 18 billion cubic meters in the previous year. Russia has become the third largest supplier of LNG to Europe after the United States and Qatar.

While France is the largest LNG importer in Europe with 35.7 bcm in 2022, 7.4 bcm of this import came from Russia.

While Spain provided 5.2 bcm of the total 29.5 bcm of LNG imports from Russia, Belgium received 3 bcm of the 12.9 bcm of LNG imports from Russia.

France and Belgium’s LNG imports from Russia increased by 58% in 2022, while Spain’s LNG imports increased by 50%.

Although the UK was the third largest LNG importer in Europe with 26.5 billion cubic meters last year, LNG imports from Russia decreased by 85% compared to 2021.

Last year, the Netherlands imported 17.1 billion cubic meters of LNG, Turkey 15.5 billion cubic meters and Italy 14.8 billion cubic meters. Turkey, Greece and Italy were the countries that started importing LNG from Russia in 2022.

AA