Balkans | The effects of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and the risk of an energy crisis await the world in 2023

In 2023, dangers such as the continuation of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the energy crisis caused by high oil prices, food insecurity, economic crisis, and climate change await the world.

AA Reporter has rounded up the potential dangers that await the world in 2023, from the Russo-Ukrainian War to climate change.

While the world is still grappling with the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War in February; It shook the world from east to west, and from north to south.

The problems that have gripped the world in recent years, such as the energy crisis, food insecurity, economic crisis and climate change, have worsened with the outbreak of war.

The fact that these issues are so closely interrelated suggests that most of the risks may persist into 2023.

The continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the energy crisis, the problem of food security, the debt crisis of developing countries, the increase in global debt, and the worsening impact of climate change are at the top of the risks that await the world in 2023.

The war of Russia and Ukraine

The Russian-Ukrainian war, which is one of the main causes of the energy and food crisis and thus rising inflation, constitutes one of the risk areas for 2023.

While it remains unclear whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will back down from Ukraine, the unwillingness of both sides to reach a ceasefire is exacerbating and prolonging the crisis.

On the other hand, Kyiv demands more advanced and long-range weapons such as tactical missile system and missile defense from NATO and the USA.

While this war has many risks, it has been stated that the possible advanced weapon support of the USA and NATO to Ukraine could cause more problems for Russia.

energy crisis

Strained relations between Russia and Western countries due to the Russo-Ukrainian war exacerbated the current energy crisis.

The European Union, particularly concerned about energy security, has tried to take steps to diversify energy resources and reduce dependence on Russia.

The flow of natural gas from Russia to European countries that imposed sanctions on Russia because of the Ukraine war has decreased significantly.

In addition, Russia has reduced natural gas by 80% compared to what it was before the war. Energy costs have risen in European countries as supply has shrunk.

Particularly since the first months of 2022, the rapid rise in natural gas and electricity prices has affected the entire world, especially Europe.

Gas prices, which broke a record high of 346 euros in August, are hovering at 105 euros. A serious drop in gas prices is not expected in the near future.

The energy crisis, exacerbated by the war, is expected to continue into 2023.

Food insecurity

On the other hand, food insecurity is among the risks that will remain on the world’s agenda in 2023.

The World Food Program states that hunger and malnutrition include Central Asia, North Africa, the Sahara region, the Horn of Africa, and countries such as Syria, Yemen, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.

The disruption of grain exports and the supply chain, which was disrupted by the Russo-Ukrainian War, has made food insecurity more than ever. Low-income African countries in particular have been among the hardest hit by the grain crisis.

Climate change, which causes drought as well as crisis, is one of the most important causes of food insecurity.

This risk, which concerns the 345 million severely food insecure people, is not expected to be effectively resolved in 2023.

debt crisis

In addition to the energy and food crisis reinforced by the war between Russia and Ukraine, the debt crisis, especially in developing countries, also poses a global threat.

The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) warns low- and middle-income countries of heavy debt problems.

On the other hand, these countries, which account for 18 percent of the world’s population, make up 28 of the world’s first 50 climate-vulnerable countries.

Developing countries are expected to experience more poverty in 2023, they will develop less in the field of education, and their ability to combat climate change will decline.

On the other hand, according to data from the Institute of International Finance (IIF), the debts of governments, corporations, non-profit corporations and households have increased over the past five years.

In a “Global Debt Monitor” report published in September, the Institute of International Finance stated that the slowdown in economic growth after Kovid-19 has increased global debt ratios and warned of the possibility of a significant increase in corporate bankruptcies in the future.

It is believed that this situation may lead to global and regional economic crises in an environment where interest rates are rising, the dollar is strong, there is a recession in Europe, the Chinese economy is weakening and the Ukraine war continues.

Tension between the United States and China

While the world is suffering from various problems, the growing tension between the two superpowers, the United States and China, is emerging as another danger that deeply concerns all countries.

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August strained relations.

In a statement immediately after Pelosi’s plane landed in Taiwan, the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced that it condemned the visit, and the Ministry of Defense announced that it would conduct a “series of military exercises” around the island.

On the other hand, with its increasing influence from regions such as China, Africa and the Middle East, it is competing with the United States both regionally and globally.

And the two countries, which are also economically competitive, generally endorse opposing views on global issues.

As part of the G20 summit in November, US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met and tried to assess relations between the two countries in a constructive way, but Taiwan remains concerned about technological standards, trade and humanity. Human rights, Beijing’s South and East China Seas, and the territorial claims it maintains in Turkey continue to strain relations.

The tension between the United States and China, which is closely followed by the whole world, is expected to continue in 2023.

Climate change

Most scientists predict that the temperature on Earth will soon rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius and then by 2.2 degrees. In order to prevent this, it is stated that countries must reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 43 percent.

Although it has been emphasized that Western countries should provide financial support to developing countries to reduce carbon emissions, this has not yet been achieved.

If the climate continues to change at this rate, it is expected that there will be droughts, especially in the rainy seasons, and heavy rains in one place.

This situation also constitutes a major obstacle to agriculture.

In addition to the melting of glaciers as a result of climate change, there is also the possibility of other natural disasters such as floods, landslides, and wildfires.