Balkans | “The latest situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, what do the Serbs and Europe want to do?”

Member of the Board of Trustees of IHH and author of Osman Atalay’s book “The latest situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, what do the Serbs and Europe want to do?” We present to your attention the analysis entitled.

“Peace among powerful and troubled neighbors is a dangerous dream.”

Tacitus

The leader of Republika Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Dodik announced that his country refused to accept the decisions of the High Commissioner on the first day of the holiday and warned against a referendum.

“We no longer recognize the constitution, as of today, Bosnia does not exist for us.” While his speech was tense, the insult to the Bosnians who lost their lives shortly before the anniversary of the 11 July genocide in Srebrenica only added to the tension.

The President of the Islamic Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Husein Kavazović, warned against the unacceptable provocative behavior of the Serbian leader Dodik regarding the genocide in Srebrenica at the meeting of politicians.

Kavazovic. “As Genocide Day approaches on July 11th, very cruel and unwise words are being spoken. A stupid man has been putting salt on a living wound for years. He poured gasoline on our house yesterday with a match in his hand. If he doesn’t stop, we’ll be on fire.” It’s time for all of us to make up our minds.”

Bosnia and Herzegovina, which was blackmailed by the Serbian leader Dodik from the beginning of the Ukraine war, has developed into a quiet and stagnant process during relations and negotiations with Turkey, Serbia and Russia.

This time, at a time when the Serbia and Kosovo crises had reached a dead end and Russia was suffering from the Putin-Wagner problem, Bosnia opened the door to a new crisis last week.

The truth is that the war between the West and Russia is unfolding in many different countries with ups and downs in the Balkans (Bulgaria, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Montenegro) and the Bosnian crisis is expected to continue in the coming days.

The General Assembly of Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina voted and passed a law last Friday. According to the law, the decisions of the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina will not be accepted in the entity of the Republic of Serbia. (The Constitutional Court is an institution brought in by the Dayton Agreement. There are judges appointed by the European Union countries as well as representatives of the three founding countries. The decisions taken by this court are final and binding on the entire country. The Constitutional Court overturns many separatist decisions, especially Republika Srpska. )

This situation is not new, the Bosnian Serbs certainly repeat this tension every year. It leads to mutual discussions across Bosnia and among interested Western politicians. Especially the politicians of the Federation and Bosnia and Herzegovina (partly Croatian politicians) react strongly to this law. As a result, the politics of the tension crisis turned into a chronic disease like a tide.

At the end of the week, there was a joint meeting of the parties that made up the coalition across BiH. The meeting was also attended by the three-party coalition in the Federation, the head of the Croatian HDZ party and the Serbian leader Milorad Dodik. The tension was reflected in this meeting as well. In addition to the two parties accusing each other, Milorad Dodik also used offensive expressions especially regarding the statement of genocide in Bosnia in Srebrenica on July 11. The Bosnian Minister of Defense also responded to the Serbian leader Dodik.

The President of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Denis Bekrovic, announced that he had given the High Representative one week to reach a final solution to this problem.

Following the developments, the German High Representative to Bosnia and Herzegovina Christian Schmidt held an emergency press conference on Saturday. He said at the meeting that the Republic of Serbia entity has canceled the laws passed by the Council and will follow up on the matter. (The High Representative is an office appointed by the European Union and has the same powers as the Governor-General of Bosnia and Herzegovina. He has wide powers and can make any economic, political, military and social decision, enact and annul any economic, political or military and social decision in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The person can be assigned to the task and fired the one they want.)

President of Republika Srpska Dodik reacted sharply to High Representative Schmidt’s decisions. As president, he will sign as soon as the law is passed, Dodik said that the Constitutional Court will not recognize the decisions of the high representative and that the SIPA security force, which has nationwide jurisdiction, will not be valid in republican territory. srpska.

The Serbian leader has been saying the same things for the past three years (that he has plans to set up checkpoints at the border between the entities and plans to hold an independence referendum by the end of the year).

Dodik added that he is united with Serbia for the sake of Kosovo, which he repeats often, and that he will fight if necessary, and that the end of the matter will be separation and unification with Serbia.

In fact, we must not forget the Serbian dream of a Greater Serbia, even though the Albanians were accused of dreaming of a Greater Albania. Although this issue is seen as a policy of mutual balancing, it is a tiresome and demoralizing argument used by both sides against the West.

Although it was last weekend and the day of the feast, the reactions were notable by politicians, clerics and NGOs.

Every time tensions between Russia and the West escalate, we witness the challenge of the Bosnian Serb leader Dodik. Of course, it is not clear how long this problem will last.

But timing matters this time around, as we are all too familiar with similar speeches. The peculiarity of this is that it not only provokes, threatens and insults the Bosnian martyrs from Srebrenica, but also severely criticizes Western representatives.

The West has long wanted the Belgrade government to make concessions on Kosovo. Stuck in this issue, Serbia is creating an artificial crisis over Dodik in Bosnia to distract attention.

Previously, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s visit to Sarajevo, the capital of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Putin’s and Serbian President Vucic’s public support for the Bosnian Serbs were an important source of strength for Dodik.

We can see the situation in Russia after the Wagner Prigojin crisis as a catalyst for events. Both Serbian President Vucic and Bosnian Serb leader Dodik know very well that the international community (the European Union and the United States of America) does not have the material and moral strength to fight on the Russian, Serbian and Bosnian fronts.

When we look at the disorganization of Europe within it, the differences of opinion in the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the sudden chaotic environment in which France, the rebellious and arrogant country in Europe, was the scene, we can say that the aggressive statements of the Bosnian Serb leader Dodik coincided with a logical time.

Dodik did not fail to provoke US and EU officials on the first day of the feast.

in body language middle finger “Do you know what that means, I’m sending it to you” was actually sending a psychological warfare to Europe and America regarding BiH.

Dodek has already opened a new front. With this, he aims to relieve pressure on Kosovo, like lightning bolts on Serbia.

The situation in northern Kosovo and the bilateral impasse is an important problem. The developments there, and the obstruction of Western Balkan policy by the European Union and the United States, greatly concern Bosnia and Herzegovina and will negatively affect it.

The situation reached with Dayton, which was imposed on the late Bosnian leader Alija Izetbegović in 1995, is a real stalemate and decay process.

Bosnia and Herzegovina will be more preoccupied with this crisis in the coming days. Will there be a solution? very Difficult. The only solution is to make a radical decision.

A truly new DAYTON is necessary, taking into account the rights of the residents of the Bosnian people.

Otherwise, no local element in the structure of Bosnia and Herzegovina could oppose the Serbian separatist leader Dodik. The court, the police, the army, the only political institution that has a say in the country, the supreme representative and the only military force is EUFOR formed by NATO.

The High Representative has political power. However, despite the threats of war, secession, and blackmail by the European Union and the United States, there are no solution policies for the time being in the short term.

Despite these blackmails, I think the West will have to make a radical decision this time.

A referendum is likely to be held in Bosnia and Herzegovina near the end of the year.

Since the Dayton Armistice Agreement in 1995, this country has always been governed by actual situations and the logic of menu management.

The EU and the USA will try to “surpass” this crisis with solid and permanent exits, but this is not seen as a sustainable situation.

The patience and hope of the European Union and the United States of America, their plan is to dissolve Serbia in the EU pot, but they want to make Bosnian and Albanian society pay the political price for that.

The Ukraine war is likely to cost dearly for EU and US policies in the Western Balkans and NATO’s Eastern Europe.

This indicates that the policies of regional expansion will be pregnant with economic, political and political changes for some time.

sde.org.tr